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Select a scenario on the map or from the buttons below. Each shows how a specific geopolitical disruption cascades through commodity markets.
Unlike Fed policy (which changes the financial plumbing), geopolitical shocks hit the physical supply layer directly. Energy and grains are most exposed because they transit through physical chokepoints. Precious metals respond as safe havens. Industrial metals get hit by both supply disruption and demand destruction.
Macro regime shocks (Fed tab) change the cost of money. Geopolitical shocks change the availability of stuff. Both move commodity prices, but through completely different pipes. The most dangerous moments are when both hit simultaneously \u2014 e.g., an energy supply shock during a tightening cycle creates stagflation, the scenario central banks fear most.
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Energy sits at the top because it's an input to everything. The USD is the denominator of nearly all commodity pricing. These two form the "trinity" with monetary policy that drives all commodity markets.
The Fed is the dam operator. Select a scenario to see how each action sends pressure through the commodity system \u2014 which pipes open, which constrict, and how fast the pressure arrives.